Dissecting the Willie Mullins October 2022 Stable Tour

Willie Mullins’ stable tours are always eagerly anticipated events as we find out where each of his superstars might run through the season, and which ones are injured or set to miss the first proportion of the 2022/23 campaign. The October 2022 stable tour was no different and punters were dealt some early blows to ante-post bets with the news that the likes of James Gate and Redemption Day are out for the season and even at this early stage, that put some Cheltenham ante-post punters down int he dumps. Unless they cashed out in time, of course.

Supreme or Ballymore for Facile Vega?

Last season’s classy Champion Bumper winner divides opinion when it comes to which route he should head down this season. By Walk In The Park and out of Quevega, he clearly has stamina in his pedigree, but he visually wouldn’t be short of pace. To my eye he has serious gears and looks the type to thrive over a range of trips. Champion Bumper winners have an excellent recent record in the Ballymore with both Sir Gerhard and Envoi Allen stepping up in trip to claim the 2m5f prize. I can’t see Facile Vega following in their footsteps. Willie Mullins has always been happy to send a strong stayer to the Supreme. The year Appreciate It won punters spent most of the season waiting for him to step up in trip. A certain Ferny Hollow had been ruled out that season and the resemblance to this season is very much there. Redemption Day, a speedier type, has just been ruled out for the season, surely pointing Facile Vega down the Supreme route. Willie is likely to have plenty of hidden gems, but Facile Vega will no doubt start off over two miles and will surely remain there until he is beaten. I simply cannot see him being defeated in the early parts of the season, especially as his stablemates are likely to be kept out of his path until Cheltenham. Come March I believe the Supreme is where the Vega can record a Facile success.

Sir Gerhard, a chaser in waiting or Champion Hurdle dark horse?

Sir Gerhard has the option of staying over the smaller obstacles to contest the Champion Hurdle or novice chasing with the Arkle or Turners being the long-term aim. Willie highlighted the fact that he could be a Champion Hurdle horse, but he would like to go chasing. Going off social media interactions, plenty seem to think it is a fore gone conclusion that Sir Gerhard goes down the Turners route, but I wouldn’t be so sure. To my eye, he has bundles of speed. Ballymore winners often possess plenty of gears and the step back down to two miles can often bring about further improvement. In recent times Faugheen stepped back in trip to win a Champion Hurdle, whilst Simonsig came down in trip to win the Arkle. I usually have a strong opinion on where I think a horse will go but I am torn with Sir Gerhard. Willie has that many novice chasers this season, so my gut says he may stick to hurdles. There are plenty of valuable pots around and Willie might be thinking a little further down the line. Honeysuckle has potentially four more career starts, and Constitution Hill is trained in England, so keeping Sir Gerhard hurdling may be a decision made with one eye on cleaning up the Irish Grade 1s next season.

Lots of Love for Brandy who looks the standout Mares Hurdle contender for team Mullins

Over the years, Willie Mullins has been mob handed when it comes to Mares Hurdle contenders but that wouldn’t appear to be the case this season. Concertista has been retired, whilst the plan for both Dinoblue and Allegorie De Vassy is to potentially go novice chasing. Echoes In Rain is a hardy mare but would appear to fall just short of the top level. This leaves Brandy Love who gets a glowing write up from her trainer. Described as having a “huge engine”, she destroyed Love Envoi at Fairyhouse, and the strength of her form looks strong. Given her Point To Point background, I’d say keeping her over hurdles is sign of confidence and I get the feeling they think the world of this mare at Closutton. Currently priced up at 5/1 for the Mares Hurdle, she’s short enough, but I suspect that price will only shorten.

Glowing reports

Capadanno
Kilcruit

Reading through and listening to Willie talk about horses, you often get a feel for those he really likes. Two stood out for me. Described as a potential Gold Cup horse, Willie clearly thinks plenty of Capodanno. Still only a six-year-old, he is entitled to plenty of improvement and seemed to relish the good ground at Punchestown. Willie has entered him in the Coral Gold Cup, for which he is priced up around the 12/1 mark. I suspect the ground may go against him but if the forecast were to be dry, I think he’s a lively contender off a mark of 159. The other write up that really stood out to me was Kilcruit. Willie clearly rates him very highly, and who wouldn’t after some extraordinary bumper performances. He majorly disappointed over hurdles though and it will be fascinating to see how he gets on novice chasing. He stayed on nicely in the Supreme off the back of a ferocious gallop, and if he were mine, I’d be going up in trip. I would like to see something of substance from him before backing him for a race at Cheltenham, but those who like a riskier punt may be tempted by his odds of 25/1 for all three novice chases.

Dark Horses

Lossiemouth
Chapeau De Soleil

There aren’t many “dark horses” in the Willie Mullins yard, but it was good to see him give favourable mentions to two horses that have collapsed in price over the recent months. Triumph Hurdle favourite Lossiemouth has been all the rage in the antepost market and Willie confirmed “she’s a nice filly that has done everything right at home”. She’s plenty short enough now and with her sole start coming on very soft ground, punters may want to see her prove herself on a quicker surface. The other horse plummeting in the Cheltenham markets of late is current Champion Bumper favourite Chapeau De Soleil. Willie kept it very brief, but he did confirm he’d be staying down the bumper route and that he has a good reputation. Such is the state of antepost punting, his current odds of 16/1 will surely get slashed after he likely wins on debut.

The Bartlett Boys

Seabank Birsto
Madmansgame
Lisnagar Fortune

Despite only mentioning Champion Bumper fourth, Seabank Bistro, specifically for the Albert Bartlett, I think Mullins may have a handful of strong contenders for the race. 2022 Boodles runner up Gaelic Warrior certainly shaped like a horse who wanted a trip, and it was interesting to see Willie say he could be bound for the staying division. Madmansgame looked an absolute giant in the pre parade ring before the Champion Bumper and Willie seems to be flirting with the idea of sending him straight over fences. That would be rather out of character though and I would expect to see Madmansgame sent hurdling first. He should relish soft ground and staying trips and could be one to shorten in the market. Arguably Willies most interesting horse for staying novice hurdles is Lisnagar Oscar’s half-brother Lisnagar Fortune. He shaped with plenty of promise in a Punchestown bumper and I would be amazed if he doesn’t make up into an Albert Bartlett type.

Two Mile Chasing Domination

Ferny Hollow
Energumene
Gentleman De Mee
Blue Lord
Chacun Pour Soi

A Champion Chase could quite easily be run at Closutton with the likes of Ferny Hollow, Energumene, Gentleman De Mee, Blue Lord and Chacun Pour Soi all set to embark on another season. I have touched on this a little later in the piece, but with such firepower I would expect to see a few contest races in England as Willie looks to shuffle his pack. Gentleman De Mee for the Tingle Creek was one that Willie mentioned.

One last hurrah for Chacun Pour Soi

Of those star two-mile names, Chacun Pour Soi’s write up was the most surprising. Willie has never hidden his affection for this horse, stating numerous times last season that he’d likely favour Chacun over Champion Chaser Energumene. To my surprise Willie revealed he will likely step Chacun up trip this season. I wouldn’t have Chacun down as a strong staying two miler, so this news really did shock me. It does open doors for him, and it will be interesting to see where he ends up. Something like the John Durkan over two miles and four furlongs could be an ideal starting point. You never know, should Allaho win a King George and head for the Gold Cup, could Chacun Pour Soi look a little overpriced at 25/1 for this year’s Ryanair?

Willie Mullins, GB Champion Trainer?

If reading through Willie’s stable tour has left me thinking one thing, it is just how much firepower he has at his disposal. With that in mind, I think he is worth backing for the GB Trainer’s Title at odds of 14/1 with Bet365. Willie came very close to clinching a first GB Trainers Title in the 2015/16 season when the likes of Douvan and Annie Power successfully raided at both Cheltenham and Aintree. He fell just under £100,000 short of Paul Nicholls but incredibly had just the 27 winners. With Willies abundant fire power, especially in the two-mile chasing division, I can see him having a few more runners in England. The likes of Allaho (King George), Gentleman De Mee (Tingle Creek) and Energumene (Clarence House) all have a favourites chance in the top Grade 1’s, but I have a feeling Willie may saddle a few more runners in Grade 2’s and even valuable handicaps. It was intriguing to see Dads Lad pick up a £31,000 prize at Cheltenham’s October meeting, Willies first runner at the meet since 2011! He has since been entered in the Greatwood Hurdle and Willie has four entered in the Coral Gold Cup. Should Willie scoop up a few of these very valuable handicaps, along with the odd Graded contest, he will be within reach come the big spring festivals. Having had 10 winners at the 2022 Cheltenham Festival, Mullins will be hoping to land the spoils once again and take home his fair share of the 4.7 million pounds on offer. With a successful Cheltenham close to a certainty, Willies chances of landing a first GB Trainers Title will likely lie at Aintree. Unlike in previous years, Aintree is a week further back in the calendar, so should Willie be within reach of the Trainer’s Title, I am hopeful he will send the fire power. Yorkhill, Vautour, Douvan and Annie Power were all sent to Aintree back in 2016 and I can envisage the same this time around. Who knows, with the absurd strength in depth at Closutton these days, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Willie target some of his “second string” specifically at Aintree. At 14/1 he seems a tad overpriced, especially when you consider the Grand National is worth a whopping £561,000 to the winner alone. To put that into context, had Willie won the Grand National last season, he would’ve been £600,000 behind Nicholls having trained just the 16 winners. I anticipate Willie to have more runners and subsequently more winners this season, so fingers crossed that 14/1 can prove a bit of value come the Spring.

[akurai_table reviews=”7109″ terms=”long” lazy_logo=”true”]