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Punchestown Festival Day 3 Betting Tips and Predictions
After the Bloodbath of Day 1, Day 2 returned to relative normality. Willie Mullins trained favourites won all 3 grade 1s on the day. For our picks, Kaid Dauthie provided a much needed winner, while the King of Prs picked up a place and we hit the crossbar with Honesty Policy. The handicaps have been favourable to the British raiders which we will have to keep in mind for the rest of the week.
4.50
The Listed mares novice race provides a chance for redemption for SIXANDAHALF (4/6), who must be viewed as an unlucky loser of the mares novice at Cheltenham. She was, to my eye, the best horse in the race and was just left out in front too long and picked up by the strong staying Air of Entitlement, who has flopped since. However, most of the other prominent horses were behind Gavin Cromwell’s smart mare that day, and I think she will be suited by the sharper test here. Howeve,r 4/6 is not the type of price to be piling into at the end of the year, and so it’s a no bet race for me here.
5.25
That same redemption is sought again here with Majborough looking to atone for a disappointing defeat in the Arkle. Again, he was likely the best horse on the day but his jumping has been a cause for concern on both his last 2 starts and a 4/9 that’s a massive worry. A chance is taken on RUBAUD (10/1) to continue a good week for the British. He has shown a definite preference for right-handed tracks and good ground. He might be the one to take advantage of any mistakes by the favourite (although that favourite will almost certainly win with any relative error free round of jumping.
6.00
Im taking a massive swing at big price here with WINTER FOG (25/1) an eye-catching entry. He was placed in the Champion Hurdle last time out and has predominantly been making up the places/numbers in Grade 1 two-mile hurdles in the last couple of seasons. However, he has won over 3m as a novice, and this step up may provide an interesting opportunity, particularly as there doesn’t seem to be a huge amount of pace in the race. Obvious negatives are that he is 11 and Paul Townend has overlooked him, but we have seen the great man get it wrong more than once this week and these are factored into the price. He is certainly worth an each way play as a new player in an open division.
Handicaps
In the 3.05 handicap chase, Tullyhill is a favourite who must be taken on (I’ve gone over the cliff on him one too many times) and there are plenty who make appeal. MIDNIGHT IT IS (9/1) was smashed in the betting at the DRF and ran 3rd in the Grand Annual at Cheltenham for the man of the moment Gavin Cromwell.
In the 4.15 3m handicap hurdle, the British raiders are well represented at the head of the market but The Friday Man catches the eye at a massive price of 40/1 for Danny Gilligan, who would have had his pick of Gordon Elliott’s. He has been chasing on his last number of starts, so it is an interesting entry and certainly worth a market check. In the same race, I would also be interested if O’TOOLE (25/1) gets in. (Currently 1st Reserve), especially if it is another double green runner who makes way to allow this.
In the concluding bumper, Ksar Fatal is an exciting prospect for next year but if he flops, perhaps GOLDINTHEMOUNTAINS (20/1) can be the one to take advantage, returning to bumpers here after a failed hurdles attempt last time out.