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1.30pm – Potter will be mightily impressive in day three opener
Day three of the Cheltenham Festival gets underway with the Grade 1 Turners Novices Chase over two miles and four furlongs. A perfect 3/3 over fences, MIGHTY POTTER 6/5 should take all the beating. Novicey on his chasing debut, he put in a classy performance to win the Grade 1 Drinmore, before sprinting away from his rivals to land the Grade 1 Ladbrokes Novices Chase at the Dublin Racing Festival. Physically, he is a big, scopey, athletic type and it is testament to Mighty Potter’s ability that he was able to win two Grade 1’s over the minimum trip as a novice hurdler. He appears to have improved for a fence and is officially rated 10lbs higher than his main market rivals Appreciate It and Banbridge. They both have excellent pieces of Cheltenham form which is the one major concern surrounding Mighty Potter. He was pulled up in last season’s Supreme but never appeared to travel a yard, making a shuddering mistake at the fourth. Found to be lame post-race and clearly outpaced on very quick ground in behind a ferocious gollop, I think you can easily forgive the run. The step up in trip over fences has played to his strengths and I believe the New Course will really suit him. Of his main market rivals, I would favour the chances of Appreciate It. Banbridge benefitted from dropping off a frenetic gallop last time out and was subsequently ridden to pick up the pieces. I have no doubt Appreciate It can improve for this step up in trip and I think Townend may adopt similar front running tactics to twelve months ago aboard Galopin Des Champs. Whether he is good enough to outstay Mighty Potter up the hill, remains to be seen. I think Mighty Potter may just have too much class and he will sit just off Appreciate It before delivering a knockout blow approaching the last.2.10pm – 2021 Pertemps runner up can go one better this time around
Next up on the cards we have the Pertemps Network Final Handicap Hurdle over three miles. Unfortunately, ante-post favourite Shoot First suffered a late setback and misses the contest. Thanksforthehelp absolutely bolted up on his last start and could still be well in off a mark of 128, but I keep coming back to THE BOSSES OSCAR 10/1 for trainer Gordon Elliott. Second in the race two years ago off a mark of 151, he runs here off a 11lb lower when you take in account his jockey’s 5lb claim. With just the one start since August, he caught the eye staying on in a modest Musselburgh qualifier. Sent off an unfancied 40/1 shot, the aim was clearly to plod round and pick up a qualifying spot late on. The Bosses Oscar managed just that, staying on strongly up the Musselburgh straight. He has subsequently crept in with the handicapper adjusting his mark by just the 3lbs. With that run under his belt, I would expect bundles of improvement and I think he’s dangerously well-handicapped. Still only an eight-year-old there could be more to come, and I think he can cause an upset.[single_affiliate_freespins id=”3938″ ]
2.50pm – Shishkin should be too strong for his rivals
SHISHKIN 5/6 heads the betting for the nineteenth running of the Grade 1 Ryanair Chase. Nicky Henderson’s star chaser bounced back to form with an emphatic sixteen-length success in the Grade 1 Betfair Ascot Chase. Pulled up in last season’s Champion Chase, question marks remained when Shishkin finished a distant third to Edwardstone in the Tingle Creek on his seasonal reappearance. Reported to be suffering with physical issues, many questioned whether we would see Shishkin at his best again. There was a camera angle of him after the line in the Tingle Creek where he did appear full of running and now we know he clearly thrives over the added distance, it may be possibly his two substandard runs were simply down to the trip. Officially rated 174, he’s miles clear of his rivals on ratings and has excellent Festival form, winning the 2020 Supreme and 2021 Arkle. On paper he should take the world of beating, it is just whether he can back up that Ascot run after a relatively quick turnaround. If he does, he’s miles better than his opposition here.3.30pm – There are floors in Porter so take a chance on Dream to get up the Cheltenham hill
The feature race of the day is the Grade 1 Paddy Power Stayers’ Hurdle where we have an extremely competitive field set to go to post. Two-time defending champion Flooring Porter has been my selection all season, but his form has definitely dipped this year and my confidence in him has dropped. I do believe connections will have based his entire season around going for three Stayers Hurdles in a row and his form gives you hope that he may bring his best to Prestbury Park once again. He has won two of his last eight starts, but crucially they have both been in this contest. He’s been well-backed in recent times but putting my ante-post thoughts aside, he won’t be my selection on the day. Blazing Khal returned to action in style with a cosy success in the Grade 2 Boyne Hurdle, conceding 5lbs to Meet And Greet who has form tied in with Home By The Lee. With two Cheltenham wins to his name, he certainly has strong claims. Home By The Lee came sixth in the race last year but he has improved bundles this season and looks the solid option. Wins in the Lismullen and Jack De Bomhead Christmas Hurdle have seen his odds plummet throughout the season. He is certainly an improving horse, and I would be surprised if he doesn’t hit the frame. Teahupoo is the horse in the race I am keen to take on. He ran poorly on good ground in last season’s Champion Hurdle, and he may not get the heavy ground he clearly thrives on here. He stopped very quickly after the line in the Galmoy Hurdle, and I have question marks about his stamina. My play in the race will be a horse Teahupoo beat at the start of the season. KLASSICAL DREAM 10/1 ran a cracker in the Hatton’s Grace, and I think he looks a little overpriced in the market. I am confident Klasscial Dream left his race behind in the Galmoy Hurdle last season and he subsequently failed to get up the hill in last year’s Stayers. Now, he may not stay three miles in a Stayers Hurdle, but he certainly does at Punchestown and Lepardstown where he has landed three Grade 1’s over the trip. Should the ground not become bottomless, I believe he will reverse the form with Teahupoo and he crucially comes into this year’s renewal a very fresh horse having not been seen since the Hatton’s Grace in early December. His record fresh is exceptional, and I believe it could be the key to him seeing out the three miles at Cheltenham. Danny Mullins will look to make this another stop-start renewal but with Home By The Lee likely pressing him the whole way I can see this year’s Stayers being run at a decent gallop. Klassical Dream will hopefully saunter round off the pace before being delivered as late as possible up the hill.4.10pm – Midnight River can get the Skeltons celebrating once again
The Magners Plate Handicap Chase is next up on the cards where So Scottish has long been favourite and he is many a shrewd judges idea of the handicap banker of the week. His claims are obvious and equally strong. His form with Boothill looks decent and he certainly shapes as though there could be plenty of improvement stepped up to this intermediate trip. Three of the last five favourites have won this contest, so I wouldn’t put anyone off him should they fancy his chances. I tend to back against short-priced favourites in the handicaps and will take So Scottish on with a classy operator. MIDNIGHT RIVER 10/1 comes into this in extremely good form. His seasonal record reads 131 and he clearly goes very well at Cheltenham recording form figures of 231 at the track. Third in the Paddy Power back in November, Midnight River was held up right off the pace and made up a considerable amount of ground coming wide down the hill before staying on up the straight. French Dynamite and Ga Law have run big races in defeat since so that piece of form looks strong. That run was on the Old Course and unsurprisingly Midnight River improved for the switch to the New Course when landing a value prize over course and distance on New Year’s Day. The fourth, Il Ridoto, has since franked the form beating the inform Fugitive at the track on Trials Day. Midnight River subsequently comes into this on a career-high mark, but the recent rain should play to his strengths, and I believe his form is rock solid. I will be disappointed if he is not fighting out the finish.4.50pm – Luccia can announce herself as one of the most exciting mares around
There won’t be a dry eye in Prestbury Park if Henry De Bromhead can land the newly named Jack De Bromhead Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle after the tragic passing of his son last Summer. He knows what it takes to train the winner having saddled Telmesomethinggirl to success in the race back in 2021. Magical Zoe would appear his best chance of landing the spoils and I think she has strong claims. Put away specifically for this, her form has been franked throughout the season and her style of racing could be key here. Sitting off the pace tends to be the way to go, as they usually go a proper gallop through the early parts of the race. Strong finishers have picked up pieces up the Cheltenham hill and Magical Zoe will be looking to do just that. In it’s early inception Willie Mullins farmed this race, winning the first five renewals. With Ashroe Diamond not declared, classy flat performer Lot Of Joy appears to be the first strong for the Irish Champion Trainer. Narrowly beaten on her first two hurdle starts in behind smart geldings, Lot Of Joy ran out an emphatic winner of Fairyhouse maiden last time out. Rated 96 on the flat, she certainly has class and is no doubt the main danger to the selection. If there is to be a superstar in this race, it will surely be LUCCIA 13/8. An emphatic seventeen-length triumph in a Listed mare’s bumper at Sandown this time last year, saw her come into the season a leading prospect for novice hurdles. She hasn’t disappointed, recording facile victories at both Newbury and Exeter. The form of those races is nothing to shout about but she has created a deep visual impression that she could be a seriously smart mare. Nicky Henderson is 0/10 in the contest and Luccia lacks experience compared to a few of her rivals. She will appreciate the softening ground conditions and should thrive sitting in behind a decent pace. I think she may be a cut above the rest of these and can buck the trends to land a first mares’ novice for the Seven Barrows Maestro.5.30pm – Course and Distance winner can cause an upset in the lucky last
Day three ends with the Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Amateur Jockeys’ Handicap Chase. Stumptown has been one of the big ante-post movers in the Cheltenham handicaps this year and he looks sure to run a big race for his shrewd connections. In a race of this nature, I would be inclined to side with something at an each way price against him. Course and distance winner RAPPER 33/1 looks overpriced to me. Henry Daly has had a fine season to date, and he continues to fire in the winners. Rapper was an emphatic eight and half-length winner of a handicap chase at the track on New Year’s Day over the exact course and distance. The form of that race is patchy, with placed horses going on to slightly disappoint, but subsequent winners Itchy Feet and Cap Du Nord were further down the field. Rapper was visually very impressive that day and powered up the Cheltenham hill. I thought the handicapper was a tad lenient only raising him 6lbs and Rapper duly reappeared in a good-looking Sandown handicap over three miles. He was outpaced at a crucial stage in the race but plugged on gamely under hands and heels to finish a respectable fifth. Eased in the weights by a pound and with Miss Alice Stevens claiming 3lbs off in the saddle, Rapper is effectively back down to a mark just 2lbs higher than his New Years Day course and distance romp. He will relish the step back up in trip and I think he can outrun his hefty odds.Cheltenham Day 3 Tips
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