1.30pm – Magic Mullins can get the Irish off to a flyer
The greatest show on turf gets underway with the Grade 1 Sky Bet Supreme over an extended two miles. It is imperative to get the week off to a flyer but to do so we will have to unpick a devilishly tricky Supreme. Last season’s Champion Bumper winner Facile Vega had been all the rage for this race before disappointing at the Dublin Racing Festival. Found to be lame, and given a slightly mad front-running ride, he has excuses, but whether that race has left its mark is yet to be seen. 14 of the last 16 Supreme winners won their last start, highlighting just how difficult it is to bounce back to form in a race of this nature. Willie Mullins will need to of worked his magic! High Definition took Facile Vega on that day and could be interesting given he is likely to get an uncontested lead. His jumping would be a major concern though and I can see him making one or two costly mistakes. Marine Nationale sits second in the betting, but he hasn’t been seen since winning the Grade 1 Royal Bond back in early December. The stats do not read kindly for horses coming into the Supreme on the back of a break with 21 of the last 22 winners having had their prep run in the last 99 days. Marine Nationale’s last run came 100 days ago! I am not a major fan of stats and would argue not many horses of his quality have opted to come into the race on the back of a deliberate break. I would however question the strength of his from. Irish Point went down a head to Marine Nationale in the Royal Bond, but he was taken off his feet at the Dublin Racing Festival with no obvious excuses. With softer conditions looking likely, the ground has also gone against Marine Nationale, whose trainer believes he’s a much better horse on a sounder surface. IL ETAIT TEMPS (6/1 with Betfred) arguably has the single-best run from a two-mile novice this season and I think he is the bet in the race. Eye-catching as a juvenile hurdler, including a fifth in last season’s Triumph, Il Etait Temps has looked a different horse this season. He is still an exuberant type, but he has started to settle better and subsequently fulfil his potential. He placed behind Facile Vega at Christmas, which was a fair run in itself, finishing five lengths ahead of the smart Ashroe Diamond. Sent off 14/1 for the Grade 1 Tatterstalls Ireland Novice Hurdle, Il Etait Temps absolutely relished the relentless gallop and came there swinging entering the straight. Danny Mullins asked him to extend, and he shot clear to record a nine and half-length success. I think this performance has been overlooked. The Supreme tends to be run at a good pace and High Definition will no doubt ensure they go hard from the start. Il Etait Temps clearly thrives in behind a furious gallop and I believe he is extremely likely to get one here. He is clearly an improving horse; he doesn’t have question marks against his name, and I think he represents an excellent each way bet. I struggle to see him outside the first three.2.10pm – Exciting Arkle can go to El Fabiolo but look out for Saint Roi in the match bet markets
The Grade 1 Sporting Life Arkle Challenge Trophy is usually one of the most exciting races of the week and this year’s renewal could be a cracker. Being a full brother to 2016 Arkle winner Douvan, Jonbon has long been thought of as an extremely exciting chasing prospect. Three chase starts later, and he has certainly delivered after a highly encouraging novice hurdle campaign. The strength of his form is questionable, but Jonbon has excelled in the jumping department and his overall time and closing sectionals in the Grade 1 Henry VIII Novices’ Chase, compared well to Edwardstone in the Tingle Creek. Question marks were raised after a somewhat underwhelming prep run at Warwick in a match race vs Calico. Harry Skelton nearly did enough to steal the race, but Jonbons class shone through, and his jumping remained extremely quick, despite edging right at times. I’d say that run may have been a blessing in disguise, giving Jonbon a bit of match practice he so badly needed. I would expect big improvement here as he faces an old enemy for the first time over fences. EL FABIOLO (7/4 with William Hill) and Jonbon first clashed over hurdles at Aintree last season. Jonbon came out on top but depending on how you view the form, you can make a case for either horse being the one to take out of the race. Jonbon had more experience but did come there after a lung-bursting effort in the Supreme, whilst El Fabiolo was seriously inexperienced having had just the one hurdles start to date. I think Jonbon is the better jumper of the pair, but El Fabiolo undoubtedly has the strongest piece of form, winning a seriously good Irish Arkle last time out. The fact he was able to sit just in behind Dysart Dynamo and sustain his effort to the line in the powerful manor in which he did, suggests he is a horse with huge amounts of natural ability. Tactically, this could be interesting. The Arkle is furlong less than the Irish version which is likely to suit the free-going Dysart Dynamo. Riders of the horses in behind will need to ensure they don’t give him too much rope, but his presence upfront ensures pressure will be applied in the jumping department. El Fabiolo made one very big mistake in the Irish Arkle, but jockey Daryl Jacob has been vocal about the fact he thought that was his fault. I think El Fabiolo may possess more natural ability and his stamina could prove key coming up the Cheltenham hill. From a betting perspective, El Fabiolo is my idea of the winner, but I do fancy Saint Roi to beat Dysart Dynamo in a match bet. Dysart Dynamo was all over the place before last season’s Supreme and the Cheltenham atmosphere almost certainly got to him. I thought he was tiring when taking a tumble and I could see something similar happening here. Fences have helped him settle but I struggle to see him finishing strongly up the hill. Saint Roi will likely be ridden to pick up the pieces and capitalise on a pace collapse. It is worth remembering he has won a Grade 1 over fences and has excellent Cheltenham form, winning the 2020 County Hurdle, before staying on strongly to finish fourth in last season’s Champion Hurdle.2.50pm – Two against the field as the handicap action gets underway
The first handicap of the 2023 Cheltenham Festival is the Ultima Handicap Chase over three miles and one furlong. Defending champion Corach Rambler appears to have a very good chance of repeating last season’s success off a 6lb higher mark. Derek Fox gave him an absolute peach last year, but I do wonder whether he will be able to slice through the field off a 6lb higher mark. He will need plenty of luck in running and I would favour a horse sitting closer to the pace. Horses beaten in previous renewals have a good record of returning in the Ultima and HAPPYGOLUCKY (14/1 with bet365 – 6 places) is an interesting runner for trainer Kim Bailey. Second in the 2021 renewal, Happygolucky went on to bolt up at the Aintree Festival but unfortunately wasn’t then seen for 595 days. He reappeared in the Rehearsal Chase at Newcastle in behind the extremely smart L’Homme Presse and Into Overdrive. L’Homme franked the form with a massive run in the King George, whilst Into Overdrive went on to win the Rowland Meyrick, beating Sounds Russian who ran a massive race in behind Ahoy Senor in the Cotswold Chase. Into Overdrive reopposes here, but Happygolucky has an 8lb pull at the weights for a three-length defeat. Happygolucky has since disappointed at Cheltenham on New Years Day but that run came over an inadequate trip and he may have bounced slightly after the long lay off previously. Still only 9, he could well be in his prime and with excellent Cheltenham form to his name, I think he dangerous off a mark just 3lbs higher than his cosy Aintree Festival win. With plenty of bookmakers conceding extra places, I couldn’t ignore the claims of another runner. Venetia Williams had a fantastic festival last year and I am hoping she can go close with CLOUDY GLEN (18/1 with Paddy Power – 6 places). A winner of the 2021 Ladbrokes Trophy just three starts back, Cloudy Glen has been dropped back down to a mark of 145 (5lbs above his Ladbroke winning mark). Sent off 28/1 for the Grand National Trial at Haydock on his last start, Cloudy Glen finished a fine third, making all before tiring late on. The step back down to three miles will suit and he ticks plenty of boxes on the trends. The last 12 winners have all had Cheltenham experience, which Cloudy Glen certainly has after a fine second in the 2021 Kim Muir, his only previous visit to the festival. 11 of the last 12 winners have also had five or more runs at three miles plus, highlighting you need to stay well to win the Ultima. The Old Course tends to suit prominent racers and the fact Cloudy Glen is 10 wouldn’t be a problem with 3 horses wining the contest age 10 or older since 2007. With form on a variety of going descriptions, any heavy rain that does fall wouldn’t be an issue and I would be confident Cloudy Glen can outrun his lofty odds.£30 in Free Bets for Day 1 at Cheltenham
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3.30pm – Constitution will power up the Cheltenham Hill for a first Champion Hurdle success
The first championship race of the week is the Grade 1 Unibet Champion Hurdle. Last season’s County Hurdle winner State Man comes into this with a string of one’s next his name, including a hattrick of Grade 1 wins in the Morgiana, Matheson and Irish Champion Hurdle. Any other year you could easily envisage him being a shade of odds on, yet he sits at 3/1 in the current market behind the extremely talented Constitution Hill. Last season’s Supreme Novice Hurdle winner has captured the imagination of the racing world, with plenty believing he could well be one of the greatest horses we have ever seen. His temperament before racing is exceptional and he appears to cruise through his races in second gear. When Nico asks him to extend the response is immediate. Before you know it, he his ten lengths clear and the race is won. Barring a fall, I have no doubt he will be far too good for State Man but at 2/7 he isn’t most people’s idea of a great bet, especially at Cheltenham! State Man has the beating of most of these of form so the forecast at 10/11 may offer a little more value. Back Constitution Hill to beat State Man into second.4.10pm – Lots to Love about Brandy in awesome Mares Hurdle showdown
The Close Brothers Mares’ Hurdle is a race that divides opinion but there can be no denying the quality of this year’s renewal. Two-time Champion Hurdle winner and the 2020 Mares Hurdle heroine, Honeysuckle looks set to bless Prestbury Park with her presence one last time. She has lost her unbeaten record this season but has run two extremely good races in defeat. The worrying sign for me is that she has clearly regressed and despite still being a very good mare, she’s on the way down and could be vulnerable to an improving type. BRANDY LOVE (8/1 with Coral) could be just that and she’s my idea of the bet in the race. An eight-length success over the reopposing Love Envoi at the end of last season confirmed Brandy Love as one of the most talented mares around. Jumping to her right violently over the final few flights, she gave away plenty of ground but was still able to power away for an impressive success. Having returned late from her Summer break, we had to wait until the Grade 3 Quevega Mares Hurdle to see her in action. Notably weak in the betting, she finished third, just under five lengths behind Queens Brook. Initially, I was underwhelmed by the performance but upon reflection, I thought it was a perfectly acceptable effort. Queens Brook was a good second to Marie’s Rock in last years Mares Hurdle and came into that race with three runs under her belt. Brandy Love had to concede 9lbs to her and was clearly in the need of the run, hence being seriously weak in the betting. I thought she travelled and jumped well through the race and made a menacing move on the home turn, hitting 1.14 in running, before getting tired approaching the last. The switch to a left-hand track is likely to bring about improvement and I think Brandy Love will come on bundles for the run. Paul Townend has opted to ride over stablemates Echoes In Rain and Shewearsitwell, so I would say he expects plenty of improvement too. Love Envoi was a good winner of the Mares Novice Hurdle last season, but the form of that contest is questionable and as touched upon earlier, she was well beaten by Brandy Love at Fairyhouse. The recent rain that has fallen will be to her liking, but I think she may need a bit more to be seen to best effect. Epatante is an extremely interesting runner but has it all to prove against Honeysuckle having chased her home in the last two Champion Hurdles. She doesn’t appear to have regressed but at the same time you wouldn’t envisage further improvement. Despite winning over two and a half miles at Aintree, I would have stamina concerns for her alongside Echoes In Rain, who I believe is at her best over the minimum trip. Marie’s Rock is the main danger to the selection and arguably the one they all have to beat after an impressive return to action in the Grade 2 Relkeel Hurdle. Given her proximity to Queens Brook in the race last season, I think Brandy Love is the one worth chancing at the prices.4.50pm – Second string Belle is worth chancing in good-looking Boodles
A full field of 24 runners are set to go to post for the Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle over an extended two miles. Tekao has long been the favourite for this contest and caught the eye when travelling extremely well against Triumph Hurdle contenders Lossiemouth and Gala Marceau. The British handicapper was clearly impressed giving him an English mark 7lbs higher than his Irish one. I’d say he still has a few pounds up his sleeve, but that hefty rise in the weights is enough to put me off in what is a seriously competitive handicap. The last three winners of the Boodles have all come from the same race at Naas, won this year by Sir Allen. He has some eye-catching form behind Blood Destiny, but I would fancy Byker, who finished third that day, to reverse the form. JP McManus has a strong hand in this contest, and I am going to side with his second string, RISK BELLE (10/1 with William Hill), for trainer Willie Mullins. Three starts for the Closutton master have yielded form figures of 54F but she caught the eye in behind Lossiemouth on her first two starts, being given conservative rides on both occasions. Pitched into handicap company at the Dublin Racing Festival, Risk Belle was extremely well backed into favouritism, running off a mark of 123. Unfortunately, she took a tumble at the fifth, but thankfully was none the worse for that fall. The English handicapper has only bumped her up 4lbs and given how well supported she was last time out; you would have to think connections believe she is more than capable of winning off her current mark. Heaven Help Us beat Telmesomethinggirl in that race back in 2021, with both horses going on taste Cheltenham Festival success in the Coral Cup and Mares Novice Hurdle respectively. Black Tears also won the same contest back in 2020 prior to finishing second in the Coral Cup before going on to win the Mares Hurdle a year later. As a result, that race at the Dublin Racing Festival has a rich recent history of producing Cheltenham Festival winners. Yes, Risk Belle was a faller, but she was ultimately backed as though defeat was out of the question. Similar market support could be a telling sign and she will be my dart in a typical tricky Boodles.5.30pm – Favourite to give punters a winning end to Day 1
GAILLARD DU MENSIL (11/10 with BetUK) heads the betting for the final race on day one, the National Hunt Chase over a stamina-sapping three miles and six furlongs. He has the perfect profile for the race and looking at both his form and collateral form he is head and shoulders above his rivals. He brushed aside Churchstonewarrior in the Grade 1 Neville Hotels Novice Chase at Christmas and that rival went on to frank the form, beating current second favourite Mahler Mission at Navan. 8lbs clear on official ratings, Gaillard Du Mesnil has an incredibly consistent profile, and it has always taken an extremely good one to beat him. His two defeats this season have resulted in placed efforts behind the extremely smart Mighty Potter over an inadequate trip and his two runs at Cheltenham have seen him finish second in a Ballymore before a fine third in last year’s Brown Advisory. Having finished third in last season’s Irish Grand National off a mark of 154, stamina shouldn’t be a problem. With eight chase starts under his belt, he has stacks of experience which should stand him in good stead here. I think he is tactically versatile in terms of where Patrick opts to ride him and he wouldn’t mind softer conditions should we get heavy rain in the build-up. Gaillard Du Mesnil can give favourite backers one last hurrah on day one.£30 in Free Bets Cheltenham Day 1
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