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2023 Cheltenham Festival Lucky 15 Tip
- Tekao (Boodles Juvenile Handicap)
- Gerri Colombe (Brown Advisory Chase)
- Salvador Ziggy (Pertemps)
- Blazing Khal (Stayers Hurdle)
Takao to win the Boodles Juvenile Handicap (Tuesday) – 6/1
I was in Navan when TEKAO ran in his Maiden Hurdle and he travelled supremely before getting tired and not finishing his race. The betting on the day suggested that he would need the run and at that time Willie was open on the fact that most of his would improve for their first outing. He followed this up by winning a competitive Maiden hurdle at the Leopardstown Christmas meeting. While initially, I thought he had been extended to do so, I rewatched that race and I think Mark Walsh has done brilliantly to hide just how snuggly this horse has won. And it seems to have done the trick….he was entered in a Handicap hurdle in Thurles off a mark of just 121. He was given an entry for the Dublin Racing Festival and shows me that he is held in high regard at Closutton. Either way, with English Handicapper Tax, he should get into the race with a mark in the mid to high 120s and this would fit the trends (14 of the 17 winners of the race were officially rated between 124 and 134). Add to this that Jp has had 2 of the last 3 winners and that he is French bred, Tekao ticks a lot of boxes. In recent years, the horses placed in this race have often been ones just short of Triumph class (Saint Sam, Aramax, Brazil, Gaelic Warrior) and I get the impression that Tekao wouldn’t look out of place in a Grade 1 contest. But with Willie already training the first 3 in the betting for the 2023 Triumph Hurdle, I would be confident that he runs here. If he turns up on the day with Mark Walsh on his back, you can be sure he will go off shorter than the current best odds of 6/1.Gerri Colombe to win the Brown Advisory Chase (Wednesday) – 9/4
Gerri Colombe (8/1) is the pick for the 3m Brown Advisory Chase following a good performance in his recent assignment at Sandown. Gerri Colombe has this and the National Hunt Chase as entries at the festival but it’s looking very unlikely that he runs in the latter as he probably won’t be qualified. His run at Sandown over 2m4 is likely to be his last race before Cheltenham so therefore cannot run in the NHC meaning his festival target should be this. Unbeaten in all 7 starts under rules (2 flat, 2 hurdles and 3 chases), I believe we are nowhere near seeing Gerri Colombe’s best on a racecourse yet. Gordon has been steady with him and didn’t run him in any of the spring festivals last season. His runs have only come between November-February so running in the spring is an unknown but it’s an unknown that doesn’t worry me. There’s often talk that the horse needs soft/heavy but Gordon has denied that and said even though he is better on ground that has significant give in it, he believes he can handle the better ground too. You could argue that the majority of horses he has beaten in his career aren’t G1 or top horses but I think that’s just Gordon giving him a soft approach into the game. He battled well at Limerick over Christmas and got the better of Adamantly Chosen & Kilcruit and I’m certain there’s a lot more to come when stepped up in trip. Hi Sandown run also seen him stay well up the testing run-in. The Brown Advisory lacks a bit of class in my opinion and he confirmed his place at the top of the Brown Advisory Chase betting odds with that win at Sandown.Salvador Ziggy to win the Pertemps Network Final (Thursday) – 10/1
I think the Pertemps is a bit of an exception to the ‘don’t bet on the handicaps early’ as it is usually pretty clear to see which horses are being aimed at the race. Maxxum jumped to the head of the market with a 16-length romp in the Leopardstown qualifier over the Christmas period but ran a shocker at the Dublin Racing Festival. Charles Byrnes Shoot First won the Cheltenham qualifier and he is at the top of the latest Pertemps betting odds. However, winners of Qualifiers have an atrocious record in the Final (2 wins in the last 20). Indeed it has paid to look out for those sneaking in the final places (4 places this year having been 6 for the last few years). It also pays to follow Gordon Elliot in the face, between 2017 and 2021, he had 11 runners in the race. Three won and 7 of the other 8 finished in the top 5. And sure enough, coming in 4th place in the October Cheltenham Qualifier was Gordon’s SALVADOR ZIGGY. This horse has one of the current Stayers Hurdle favourites Home by the Lee in trouble when he ran out in Down Royal, where he gave this rival and solid yardstick Off You Go and Ronald Pump 7 pounds and a beating. Home by the Lee is now rated 157 which makes me believe that Salvador Ziggy could have plenty in hand. He ran off 145 in Cheltenham and shouldn’t receive more than a couple of pounds for that run (3rd place An Tailliur got 3) so a mark around 147 is very workable. He could also be in the region of 12 pounds better off with Shoot First for that 4-length defeat. Botox Has who came second in that race went on to frank the form, winning next time in Haydock (blowing his own handicap mark in the process). Salvador Ziggy has a timeform rating of 146 which makes him the 4th highest Novice hurdler (ahead of the likes of Gaelic Warrior and Grangeclare West) and has just gone 7 so should still be improving and will love the better spring ground.Blazing Khal to win the Stayers Hurdle (Thursday) – 5/2
This horse came back after a long lay off to put in a really impressive performance at Navan recently, winning the race by 3 lengths after travelling strongly throughout. This looks like the ideal profile for a Staying Hurdler and with unknowns surrounding the likes of Flooring Porter and Klassical Dream, the race has opened up. Home by the Lee winning the Railway Bar Lismullen Hurdle at Navan was not expected and as a result, it asked questions regarding the form and longer-term potential of Bob Olinger, Zanahiyr and reigning Stayers Hurdle champ Flooring Porter. There is always a chance you get horses stepping up in trip who aren’t quite good enough to compete at 2m or horses who have gone chasing but failed/disappointed. But even with many unknowns, I think Blazing Khal will be at the top of this division this season. Blazing Khal has only been seen once since winning at Cheltenham last December due to an injury setback that cut his novice hurdle season short. At the time he was ante-post favourite for the Albert Bartlett and looked a worthy favourite at that time. He had 3 runs last season and stepped up in trip on each occasion (2m3, 2m5, 3m) and he looked better the further he went. His love for Cheltenham was evident on both starts there last season and I can only see this horse progressing and being a huge player in the staying hurdle division. The form can be questioned but he beat subsequent G1 winner Gelino Bello twice including a 4 ¼ length win over 3m.Coral’s Cheltenham Sign-up Offer: Bet £5 get £20
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