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The Dawn Run Mares Novice Hurdle Tip (Day 3)
The Mares Novice Hurdle had been a Willie Mullins benefit in its first 5 runnings with the Closutton handler saddling the first 5 winners in the race (including 4 of the first 5 in 2020) until Telmesomesomethinggirl scored for the woman of the moment Rachel Blackmore last year. Mullins again holds the key in this year’s renewal, despite the late defection of the hugely impressive Allegorie de Vassy whose victory in the Solerina had propelled her to the top of the Market. Second that day was current favourite Brandy Love, who would surely have won bar jumping left at every hurdle, culminating in her almost joining the patrons in the Bobbyjo Bistro at the second last. Although many would see a return to going left-handed as a tonic to that problem, and despite the fact that she clearly has massive ability, the violent nature of some of those jumps would be a concern and at prohibitive odds, I will cautiously look elsewhere. I am also dubious about next in the betting Dinoblue who is a talking horse from the Cheltenham Festival preview circuit and whose form in her one run does not justify her skinny price. Previous winner Concertista was a second season novice having her second go in the race, a profile similar to Joseph O’Brien’s Mighty Blue, who travelled sweetly into last year’s race. However, she fell when seemingly held on her only start over hurdles this year and is far from a certain participant. (A 20/1 NRNB price would tempt me though). The last 2 winners of this race have come 3rd in the Paddy Mullins Mares Handicap at the DRF, and the winner of this year’s renewal, Party Central, has attracted support. However, she is a Tricky ride and was actually beaten in the DRF mares bumper last year by my selection GRANGEE (8/1). She was far from disgraced against Supreme horses Mighty Potter and Three Stripe Life at Christmas and according to Brian Cooper, was travelling well when coming down in the previously mentioned Solerina. She will have to defy some stats (6/6 winners had come in the top 3 in their previous start and had also placed in a graded/listed race) but with the race in its infancy, those stats could be misleading and I think she will go very close at an each-way price.Festival Hunters Chase Tip (Day 4)
On Friday at 4.10, with Prestbury Park still on a high from Minella Indo winning back to back Gold Cups (Bonus Tip), we turn our attention to the Race that stops a nation……from wanting to have a 5th day at the Cheltenham Festival. Billaway, for the 3rd year in a row, is the favourite but I would be concerned that he has found one too good on his last 2 attempts. Winged Leader beat him easily in Thurles and I think the only reason he’s not outright favourite is because Willie has said that Billaway would come on from the run. This may also be true for David Christie’s horse who was having his first start of the season under rules. However, another horse in the race who I believe would be half its odds bar one noticeable concern, is my selection BOB AND CO (8/1). It is easy to mock Owner/Jockey David Maxwell, who once pulled up this classy French recruit because he himself was cramping. However, the likeable Maxwell has actually had 7 winners this year for a £16.38 profit to level stakes. The horse was travelling well in last year’s race before coming down 3 out and if the Jockey can get enough electrolytes on board in the lead up to the race, I fancy him to go very close.Paddy Power Mares Chase (Day 4)
The newest addition to the Cheltenham Card (unfortunately at the expense of the novice handicap chase) is the Mares Chase. Last year saw ELIMAY (5/2) beaten at 6/5, but Colreevy’s subsequent defeat of Monkfish and the horse formerly known as Envoi Allen proved that that narrow loss was no disgrace. (Maybe irrelevant but I wonder if any horse would have been able to give her 7 Lbs in a Gold cup). Elimay disappointed at Aintree but had been over to Carlilse for an abandoned meeting just the week before and I am happy to put a line through that run. Of the other market principles, Mount Ida is a likeable sort who has (remarkable) course form. However, at Punchestown Elimay gave her 6lbs and a beating, and I also suspect that the Aintree National is her main target for the season. Concertista was a far better hurdler than these 2 and her defeat of Magic Daze sets a good standard. However, she has only had 2 chase starts and had almost 20lbs to find on Racing Post Ratings. Gin and Lime may be a summer horse and I feel that the home team are trying to make Zambella out to be a challenger in a race in which she probably lacks the class to win.Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle Tip (Day 4)
Before we turn our attention to Cheltenham 2023 Antepost Punting there is the small matter of the “Boys Race” for Conditional Jockeys. Previous winners Don Slowly Poli, Champagne Classic, Sir Des Champs and Killutagh Vic would suggest that you are looking for a horse that will turn into a graded staying chaser. (Don’t get me started on Galopin Des Champs not going 3m). This is further backed up by 9/10 winners being aged 5 or 6 and 8/10 having had no more than 8 hurdles starts. This last stat would count against Langer Dan who is undoubtedly well handicapped on his second in the race last year. There is also no doubt that State Man off 141 is of interest (in fact I would give him an outside squeak in a Supreme Novices Hurdle of this standard so I would have to fancy him of 141) and Richie Deegan was an eye-catching jockey booking last time out. However, he is one with multiple entries and so I will hold fire on him for now. Gordon Elliot is always a man to look out for in this race and he could run 5 or 6. The Goffer is certainly a staying chaser in the making, although maybe not a graded one and Hollow Games will attract support if he goes here but I have been hugely disappointed by him in his last 2 starts. CHEMICAL ENERGY (8/1) is the one I have liked for this for a long time. He was a classy bumper horse and while he disappointed in the Champion Bumper last year, perhaps that just came a little early in his career. He will appreciate good ground and I think that this has been the plan all year. If Jordan Gainsford is Booked, LUMP!How to get the Ladbrokes Cheltenham Sign-up Offer
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