Supreme Novices Hurdle 2022 Tips: Tips for the First Race on Day 1 of the Cheltenham Festival

Adam O'Brien
The race that kicks off the greatest 4 days in jump racing. As the tapes go down for the first time and the famous Cheltenham roar echoes around Prestbury Park, the wait is over. Winning now becomes everything for everyone from trainers and jockeys to owners and punters. As punters, getting off to a flyer in the supreme can shape the week. Cinders & Ashes taking the 2012 renewal had me hooked and I’ve been obsessed with the atmosphere and finding winners ever since. In recent years we’ve had a mix of some seriously strong Supremes (2016 Altior) and some fairly weak ones (last years).  Luckily for us, this year’s addition is giving us the same vibes we had in 2016.  

Supreme Novices Hurdle Key Trends

  • Age – 11 of the last 12 winners were aged 5 or 6
  • Price – 3 of the last 12 favourites/joint favourites have won, 9/12 winners were in the top 3 in the betting
  • Last Run – 10 of the last 12 winners won on their last run before the Supreme Novices Hurdle, 10/12 winners ran within the last 59 days
  • 4/12 winners ran in the Tattersalls Ireland Novice Hurdle (Leopardstown) on their last run, 4 of the 4 won, 0 placed
  • Previous Course Form – 6/12 winners had at least 1 previous run at Cheltenham, 2/12 winners had at least 1 previous win at Cheltenham
  • Previous Distance Form – 11/12 winners had at least 3 previous runs over 15-17 furlongs, 12/12 had at least 2 previous wins over 15-17 furlongs
  • Previous Hurdle Form – 10/12 winners had at least 4 runs over hurdles, 11/12 winners had at least 2 wins over hurdles
  • Rating – 10/12 winners were rated 144 or higher
  • Graded Wins – 10/12 winners had at least 1 previous win in a grade 1-3 race
  • Season Form – 12/12 winners had at least 2 runs that season, 10/12 winners had at least 3 runs that season, 11/12 winners had at least 2 wins that season
Overall the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle is a good stats race and one that we can pick a winner from following 1 or 2 key trends. However, Shishkin and Appreciate It have won in the last 2 years whilst having 1 negative trend against them (Graded form for Shishkin and age for Appreciate It) 6 in the last 8 have gone to either Mullins or Henderson so it’s no surprise to see their horses dominating the top of the market in the Supreme Novices Hurdle odds 2022. Proven form often comes to the fore in the supreme and rather surprisingly, can sometimes be overlooked. In general, when looking for a Supreme winner, you need a horse with proven form in the book and one who can travel kindly, holding their position off what is usually a strong gallop. Only 1 winner (Labaik 25/1) since 2013 has been a double figured price so it pays to focus at the front end of the market.  

Supreme Novices Hurdle 2022: The Main Contenders

Constitution Hill is the current fav and brings 2 impressive performances at Sandown on both soft and heavy ground. The turn of foot he showed on hurdles debut to brush aside a smart one in Might I showed what level of horse we have here. He backed that up by easily despatching his rivals in the G1 Tolworth as his odds suggested he would. The form of that race wasn’t exactly enhanced when 2nd Jetoile finished last in the Betfair hurdle. Constitution Hill has only been right-handed and hasn’t encountered good ground yet but I believe this horse can do anything and has the speed to burn. He seems a very relaxed horse who would easily cope with the noise of a Cheltenham Festival Day 1 crowd. The next in the market is the Willie Mullins trained Dysart Dynamo. Dysart Dynamo has won  both his 2 hurdle starts and been impressive in doing so. Dysart Dynamo has won both his hurdle starts by 19 lengths including the G2 Moscow Flyer (usually the race Willie targets his main Supreme Novices Hurdle fancy). The form of the horses in behind on both occasions can be questioned but he couldn’t have been more convincing. A bumper winner at 2m2f last season may have suggested that 2 ½ miles would have been a minimum this season but Willie has kept him at the minimum trip knowing that Supreme winners have to be able to stay to be competitive. The talking horse for the majority of the winter has been the £570k purchase of Douvan’s full brother, Jonbon. A winner of all his bumper (1) and hurdle (3) starts, I don’t think we have seen the best of this horse and Nicky Henderson’s Cheltenham 2022 stable tour suggests that too. He has had 1 more start over hurdles than his main market rivals and his jumping stands out the best on the eye. Despite being unbeaten there seems to have been some crabbing of his form and ability which I would put down to his reputation more than anything else. He has had to make the running on his first 2 starts as they crawled from the flag drop and this would have inconvenienced him. He gave weight to his rivals on his last start when winning at Haydock and without looking sensational on the eye like other contenders, he battled, quickened, and won comfortably enough. His form has been boosted slightly in the last week with Elle Est Belle winning the Sidney Banks and I Like to Move It finishing a close 2nd in the Betfair. The Ante post favourite at the start of the season was Kilcruit who was so impressive as a bumper horse. This season hasn’t been as straight forward though and he has been beaten at 2m (when 1/14) and 2m4 (when 4/9) in his first 2 outings. He has since won a maiden at 2m and seemed to benefit greatly with the application of a tongue-tie. He can be competitive if he can sort his breathing out as finishing off his races was a problem in his first 2 starts. Mighty Potter is a horse not to be forgotten about. The highly thought of Gordon Elliott charge was only 3rd in the G1 Royal Bond in November but this was a slowly run race that didn’t suit and the ground was on the quick side for him. He got nis nose in front next time over Xmas when winning the Future Champions G1 on his referred soft ground. He definitely has an EW chance and will benefit from a strongly run race on soft ground.  

2022 Supreme Novices Hurdle Betting Tip

I believe the race and indeed the market will revolve around the participation of the Mullins top 2. it looks more and more like Sir Gerhard is to be rerouted to the Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle so Dysart Dynamo will represent the Mullins yard here, along with Kilcruit. Kilcruit is a horse coming into favour with a number of pundits and Patrick Mullins has said that that is the horse he’d like to ride in the race given the choice. However, my selection for this race is going to be JONBON (if Sir Gerhard does not run). The Nicky Henderson yard form is a slight concern but Jonbon has done nothing wrong so far and his quick, low jumping is perfect for a Supreme Novices’ Hurdle. He’s gone on to win the Grade 2 Howden Kennel Gate Novices’ Hurdle at Ascot and the Grade 2 Sky Bet Supreme Trial Rossington Main Novices’ Hurdle and better ground than hislast outing at Haydock puts him right in the mix. JONBON to win the Supreme Novice Hurdle –  Jonbon (4/1)

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