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NATIONAL HUNT NOVICE CHASE – RUN WILD FRED (7/2)
In the past few years the shape of this race has changed, it used to be a race of absolute attrition, one that only the hardiest of stayers would win and you needed a certain type to run in it, let alone win it. This year’s field on paper looks to be one of the classiest lineups of the race. To mention a handful, Stattler, who based on his runs this season seems to have a turn of foot and stamina but could just lack the experience. Threeunderthrufive who with the exception of his first run over fences has won and run to a very high quality albeit in small runner fields and last year’s Albert Bartlett winner Vanillier who although hasn’t really shone to the same heights over fences has the back class and festival form to perform to a high standard. However, my pick RUN WILD FRED carries the similar sort of profile to last year’s winner Galvin. A highly tried, accurate jumper, second season novice. It took him 8 runs over fences to gain that first win, but the levels of his performances on ratings have gotten better with every run. Some solid performances in what is are some hot beginners chases last year and some very good handicaps. Last year’s main aim seemed to be the Irish National and he didn’t really disappoint in it either with a good second in the race and after that race, I reckon they pencilled this in for him. This season his performances picked up from where he left off including a somewhat easy 7 ½ length victory in the Troy Town off 145 carrying 11st 6, where he pretty much made all and didn’t really put a foot wrong. With that win, he kind of ruled himself out of running in handicaps and he doesn’t really have the class or speed for a graded 3m race in which was shown at Christmas, losing out to his stablemate Fury Road (who is a big player in the Festival Novice Chase.) Gigginstown aren’t particularly big fans of the race, with their last runner being Tiger Roll in 2017. But the noises and market moves show that him lining up in the race is very likely indeed. With the exception of the one bad mistake over Christmas, he jumps well You know he will have no problem staying, he has plenty of experience and in big runner fields too. I think RUN WILD FRED will be extremely hard to beat when it comes to the nitty gritty end and as shown he certainly isn’t one to shy away from a challenge.WEATHERBYS CHAMPION BUMPER – AMERICAN MIKE (3/1)
The Irish have dominated this race in previous years, winning the last 5 in a row and look pretty much guaranteed to make it 6 on the bounce. This year’s renewal looks hotter than last year’s and performances from the 3 horses at the top of the market have all been electric. Redemption Day has had just the one run in his career but could not have done it any better, he seems to be all speed. Patrick that day never had to ask him any questions and did everything with such ease. His stable mate and market leader Facile Vega could not have impressed any more than he did last weekend in the DRF, the way he ran from the front, quickened up and then put a few lengths between him and the second Sandor Clegane who would himself is no mug pulling a long way clear of the third too. The action of Facile Vega, the way he hits ground with purpose shows he is a top-quality horse. However, my pick is AMERICAN MIKE and I have been a huge fan of his this season. With the performance of Facile Vega over the weekend the selection is starting to be slightly overlooked. American Mike started off life in winning a point to point and was then bought in the sales for £195k and has won his two bumpers with the ultimate ease, including last time out giving 7lbs and beating Battling Bessie by 17 lengths on the bridle, who has since come out last weekend and boosted the form in losing by a nose in a Grade 2 bumper at the DRF. What is interesting is before Sir Gerhard moved from Gordons last year, this fella has followed the same path as the forementioned did and It has been made of no secret that the Elliot think he is a very special horse. In an interview with Jamie Codd, he said, “American Mike will win by the length of the straight” and although he maybe exaggerating a little bit, you could sense that he is a special horse and when he is let loose, he will be very hard to beat indeed.GLENFARCLAS CROSS COUNTRY CHASE – MORTAL (12/1)
Very much of a marmite race this, you either love it or you hate it. I have known people to go to the bar in this race, but I personally love it, the variations of jumps from the cheese wedges to the banks, to the canal like turn. It takes a very genuine, adaptable horse to take to these fences. And once again the field looks wide open. Tiger Roll the absolute Cross-Country king who managed to regain his crown from Easysland last year who I am sure if he did there would be no one who would begrudge him from doing so, however at this very minute it does look unlikely. E Easysland had his first run for his new trainer Jonjo O’Neil when he was pulled up at Sandown over hurdles over the weekend looked a shadow of himself, albeit it was over hurdles but with the problems the horse has had you wonder if they are able to bring him back to his 2020 form. You then have an unknown in the name of Prengarde who has taken the French Cross-Country scene by an absolute storm which has seen JP McManus buying him and moving him toMr Cross Country himself Enda Bolger. But as we have seen with French horse Easysland being one the going is all important and it seems Prengarde has done all his winning on Soft or worst so will the spring ground be a problem to him? He is apparently due to make an appearance over hurdles in a warm up for March. Then we come to my pick MORTAL, who has a similar sort of profile to Cause Of Causes, he has the back class previously finishing second to Delta Work in a Novice Chase and even winning a big handicap last year off 147. Interestingly he was bought by Gordon in the sales (previously owned by Gigginstown) and horses re bought by Gordon from Gigginstown can be a very good angle to follow with the likes of Smoking Gun and Folsom Blue all doing very well. He was brought over in December to Cheltenham by Gordon for what was obviously a sighter and he took to the fences very well finishing 4th that day. He was out the back for a lot of the race which really isn’t the place to be round the course as it is a very sharp track with some tight turns and can be a bit of sprint turning for him. However, he was given plenty time that day and plenty of sight at the fences, which would have been the aim. He did, however, after three out just suddenly seem to spring a pair of wings and absolutely flew home, he did slip round the home bend and ended up fading before the line to miss out on third. He then ran at the DRF in the 2 1/2m handicap which you have to think would have a been pipe opener for March. Since his run in December, he has been brought over again for a schooling session over fences with Jamie Codd on board so you have to think he will be on board which really there is no better man. He performed better on his first run over these fences than the likes of Tiger Roll and Cause Of Causes. The race in March isn’t a handicap so he won’t be conceding weight this time around and with different tactics in a much more positive ride I can see him going very well and being very hard to beat.MRS PADDYPOWER MARES NOVICE CHASE – CONCERTISTA (11/4)
The newest race at the Cheltenham Festival currently in only it’s second year. As with any of the mare’s races, Willie Mullins dominated last and looks to be the same again. Elimay, last year’s second has been a shadow of her former self so far this season but excuses can be given and is one to write off at your own peril. Mount Ida was last year’s impressive Kim Muir winner and looks to hold every chance but could be vulnerable to a speedier type at this trip and her jumping isn’t the straightest either. CONCERTISTA has done nothing but impress over fences, a very high-class mare over hurdles previously winning the Mares Novice at the second attempt before going on to be done on the line in the Mare’s Hurdle last year, if you ran that race again, she surely would have won. She jumps the fences like hurdles – so low and accurate which has got some criticism from people and the fact she doesn’t leave much room for error and getting one wrong could end up in her out of the race. But she is yet to do so. Her form from her previous two chases has been franked with horses since then coming out and winning and the fact she was put into a Grade 2 first time out shows how much high regard the yard must have for. She has more speed than a lot of her rivals and has proven staying 2 1/2miles is no problem whatsoever, always gives her running and she is one of my strongest fancies of this year’s festival.Cheltenham Festival 2022 Lucky 15 Tip
National Hunt Novice Chase – Run Wild Fred (7/2) Weatherbys Champion Bumper – American Mike (5/2) Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase – Mortal (12/1) Mrs Paddypower Mares Novice Chase- Concertista (11/4)£15 in Free Bets for Cheltenham
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